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@article{207040,
        author = {Amah, Cletus Okey and Akpabuo Gregory Beshel},
        title = {An Empirical Calibration of the Sensitivity of Government Revenue to Value-Added Tax Collection in Nigeria},
        journal = {International Journal of Innovative Research in Technology},
        year = {2026},
        volume = {13},
        number = {2},
        pages = {4172-4182},
        issn = {2349-6002},
        url = {https://ijirt.org/article?manuscript=207040},
        abstract = {This study examines the sensitivity of total
federal government revenue to Value Added Tax (VAT)
collection in Nigeria over the period 2014 – 2024. Nigeria
faces a severe fiscal crisis characterised by a tax-to-GDP
ratio of 7.9%, debt servicing consuming over 77% of
revenue, and persistent budget deficits. Despite the 2020
Finance Act increasing VAT from 5% to 7.5%, empirical
evidence on whether this translates into proportionate
increases in total government revenue remains scarce.
Drawing on an integrated theoretical framework
comprising Wagner’s Law of Increasing State Activities,
Musgrave’s Tax Handle Theory, and the Laffer Curve, the
study employs Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression
applied to secondary time-series data from FIRS Annual
Reports and the CBN Statistical Bulletin. A
comprehensive diagnostic protocol including Augmented
Dickey-Fuller, Durbin-Watson, Breusch-Godfrey,
Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey, Jarque-Bera, and Ramsey
RESET tests validates model specification. The study
provides the first post-2020 estimate of VAT -
Government Revenue sensitivity with full diagnostic
testing, generating a policy-relevant coefficient for fiscal
forecasting and future VAT rate decisions. The findings
contribute to the fiscal policy literature by bridging the
gap between VAT administration and aggregate revenue
performance in developing economies.},
        keywords = {Value Added Tax, Government Revenue, Fiscal Sensitivity, OLS Regression, Nigeria},
        month = {July},
        }