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@article{196876,
        author = {Mustafa Jamal Nasser and Captain Mustafa Kamal Naser},
        title = {The 2026 Oil Squeeze Geopolitical Volatility, Freight Dynamics, and Industrial Cost Structures},
        journal = {International Journal of Innovative Research in Technology},
        year = {2026},
        volume = {12},
        number = {11},
        pages = {5217-5233},
        issn = {2349-6002},
        url = {https://ijirt.org/article?manuscript=196876},
        abstract = {In 2026, the global oil market experiences heightened instability due to geopolitical disruptions, diminished supply flexibility, and strained maritime logistics. This study investigates the transmission of oil price volatility through freight networks and its impact on industrial cost structures, with Bangladesh serving as a representative import-dependent economy.
This study uses a mixed-methods approach to develop the Maritime–Industrial Cost Cascade (MICC) model, which integrates geopolitical risk, energy pricing, freight dynamics, and industrial cost behavior into a single framework. Empirical data from Q1 2024 to Q1 2026 show crude oil prices rose by 25 to 30 percent, marine fuel costs increased by up to 96 percent, and freight rates escalated significantly due to route disruptions and logistical inefficiencies.
The findings show a nonlinear cost-transmission mechanism, with maritime logistics acting as a key amplification layer that accelerates energy shock transmission to industrial sectors. This leads to significant margin compression, especially in energy-intensive, export-oriented industries. The analysis also highlights systemic vulnerabilities in emerging economies, such as high energy dependency, exposure to freight volatility, and policy distortions from subsidy regimes.
This study develops an integrated framework linking energy markets, logistics, and industrial cost structures, addressing a key gap in current research. The results indicate that the 2026 oil crisis marks a structural transformation, not a cyclical fluctuation, highlighting the need for policies that promote energy diversification, logistics optimization, and industrial resilience in a volatile global energy environment.},
        keywords = {Oil Price Volatility; Maritime Logistics; Freight Costs; Industrial Cost Structures; Bangladesh; Energy Economics; Supply Chain Disruption; Geopolitical Risk; MICC Model.},
        month = {April},
        }